A higher-than-expected consumer price inflation (CPI) print for March in the US has dashed hopes of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) in June. Analysts now expect the US central bank to start cutting rates in September, provided inflation remains in check and oil prices remain supportive. The markets, analysts believe, partially factored in this possibility.
Stock markets would take cues from the biggest event of the week -- the US Fed interest rate decision, besides tracking the trends in global markets and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. Last week, a heavy decline in smallcap, midcap firms, foreign fund outflows and elevated crude oil prices in the international market dented investors' sentiments. Experts said equity markets may remain volatile in the near-term amid a host of global central bank's monetary policy decisions lined up during the week.
'While Indian markets are indeed not inexpensive, the valuations of largecap stocks are still a considerable distance from being overstretched.'
'The selling in India may emerge as soon as the RBI reverses its interest rate stance.'
'Industrial countries are still struggling, with a few exceptions, to grow and the uncertainty about growth in the US as well the world is probably what impelled the Fed to stay on hold.'
The rate hike in the future is set to be 'calibrated and cautious'.
India was less directly affected by the Chinese stock market rout and yuan devaluation that battered currencies and markets in the region.
NITI is trying to partner with other knowledge institutions.
The demand for gold is expected to take a hit if the price of the yellow metal - which has been hovering around Rs 60,000, a level never seen before - remains elevated. Due to a sharp increase in price in a very short time and the flow of smuggled gold continuing, gold price in Mumbai is quoted at around Rs 59,000 per 10 gram. Typically, overall demand in the January-March and July-September quarters is moderate-to-dull, which is the case in the ongoing period.
'Despite the current uncertainties, the long-term outlook remains constructive due to strong fundamentals, government initiatives, and a stable banking sector.'
'Higher interest rates make gold less attractive as it doesn't generate yield.' 'However, with rates set to fall, the tables are turning for gold.'
The rupee has depreciated by 0.6 per cent so far in the current financial year.
The two-day away tie will be played from April 16 on the indoor hard courts at the National Tennis Centre, Lielupe, Jurmala.
Stock markets will be driven by domestic inflation data, ongoing quarterly earnings from corporates and global trends this week, analysts said. News flows around the general election would also be tracked by investors, market experts said.
"Indian markets (are) well placed to absorb the US Fed rate hike. Gradual approach in future increases augurs well for emerging markets," Economic Affairs Secretary Shaktikanta Das has tweeted.
The barometer S&P BSE Sensex ended at 26,231, up by 517 points or 2%.
World No 1 Sania Mirza was, on Monday, named captain of the Indian team for next year's Fed Cup while two six-member squads were announced by the AITA selection panel for the South Asian Games.
Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of the further declines in energy prices.
Among the 30 Sensex companies, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Tech Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro, Bajaj Finserv, State Bank of India, Reliance Industries and Infosys were the biggest gainers. Power Grid, Asian Paints, Tata Steel, Nestle, Maruti and JSW Steel were among the laggards.
Higher levels could not be sustained as participants offloaded their long positions in view of September series expiry.
The US dollar has risen about 15 per cent since mid-2015.
'GenAI programmes may not be large in terms of value, but have triggered a lot of new opportunities among clients.'
The US Fed also said that the unemployment rate too would rise to 5.7 per cent.
Equities went into a tailspin on Wednesday after the Reserve Bank surprised the market with a mid-cycle rate hike in a bid to tame soaring inflation.
RBI will now increasingly shift focus to domestic parameters
The recent weakness of the rupee has been due to yuan's devaluation.
Indian markets on Thursday shrugged off any negative impact.
Hero MotoCorp was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, spurting 4.46 per cent. IndusInd Bank, Tata Motors, Vedanta, SBI, M&M, Sun Pharma, Tata Steel, HDFC and HDFC Bank too rose up to 3.63 per cent.
Production from many gold producing regions of the world is currently constrained by power shortages; and rapidly inflating development costs are causing the postponement of several otherwise promising development projects around the world.
Equity markets will take cues from global trends and trading activity of foreign investors, while in the latter part of the week the first quarter earnings from IT majors TCS and HCL Technologies would guide investor sentiments, analysts said. Markets may consolidate after the record rally last week, experts added. "On the domestic front, the Q1 earnings season begins this week. Key companies such as TCS and HCL Technologies will release their earnings on July 11 and 12, 2024, respectively.
The bias for the BSE benchmark index, technical charts suggest, is likely to remain bullish as long as the index holds above 75,600 levels for the rest of the year.
As the results season kicks in, the quarterly earnings numbers of several blue-chip firms -- such as Infosys and Reliance Industries -- along with global trends and trading activity of foreign investors, will determine equity market movement in the holiday-shortened week ahead, according to analysts. The domestic WPI inflation data for June -- scheduled to be announced on Monday -- will also influence trading sentiments, traders said. Markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Muharram.
From the Sensex basket, NTPC, Power Grid, IndusInd Bank, Tata Steel, Tata Motors, JSW Steel, Tech Mahindra and Larsen & Toubro were the biggest gainers. Bharti Airtel, Maruti, ICICI Bank and Asian Paints were the laggards.
Janet Yellen is guiding the Federal Reserve towards its first rate rise in a decade armed with traditional economic models that some economists worry could fail her in a world of massive money printing and near zero rates.
Govt sees little Fed hike impact on 'fortressed' Indian markets.
US's terrible political and economic leadership will ultimately cost the dollar its value. India must act early to avoid being dragged down, suggests R Jagannathan.
Debt mutual fund (MF) schemes, which witnessed relatively muted inflows in the past three years, saw a surge in investor interest in April amid election-induced volatility in the equity markets. Active debt funds garnered nearly Rs 66,000 crore net inflows in April, most at least since December 2020.
Hawkish guidance by the US Fed raises concerns it could tie the hands of RBI from trimming rates.
The trend was visible in the early trade on Thursday as investors indulged in trimming their bets after the minutes of the US Federal Reserve's September meeting indicated a possible rate hike this year.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday revised upwards the GDP growth projection for the current fiscal to 7.2 per cent from 7 per cent on rising private consumption and revival of demand in rural areas. Unveiling the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said estimates released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) placed India's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 8.2 per cent in 2023-24. "During 2024-25 so far, domestic economic activity has maintained resilience," he said, adding that manufacturing activity continues to gain ground on the back of strengthening domestic demand.
